Mathematical model predicts every Premier League team's final points score for the season

Liverpool are leading the Premier League table and they are on the verge of securing first Premier League title after 30 years.  However, the Premier League is currently suspended until April 4 due to coronavirus outbreak.  The Reds need to wait a few more months, as Premier League need to end the campaign before June 30, according to The Guardian.  But how the Premier League table will look like at the end of the campaign?  The Times have published a completed 2019-20 Premier League table based on a mathematical model.  The model takes into the record the strength of the opponents left to be played and the number of home and away games.  “Inspired by the Elo calculation method, which was introduced by the physicist Arpad Elo in 1960 to rank chess players and is now used by Fifa to rank men’s and women’s national teams, the prediction is based on the average number of points that the teams would have earned in the remaining matches, factoring in the strength of remaining opponents and home advantage,” The Times’ report claims. 

• 20. Norwich City
• Points: 21
• Predicted points: 28.3

According to the prediction, Norwich City will pick seven points in their next matches. 

• 19. Aston Villa
• Points: 25
• Predicted points: 32.6

 Aston Villa have 10 games to play, however, they could earn only eight points. 

• 18. Bournemouth
• Points: 27
• Predicted points: 34.3

According to the mathematical model, Bournemouth will be the third club to relegate.

• 17. Watford
• Points: 27
• Predicted points: 35.4

Watford, meanwhile, will escape the Championship football with one more point. 

• 16. West Ham
• Points: 27
• Predicted points: 36.4

David Moyes' West Ham will earn 7 points in their next games. 

• 15. Brighton
• Points: 29
• Predicted points: 36.5

Brighton also expected to earn 7 points. 

• 14. Southampton
• Points: 34
• Predicted points: 45.1

Southampton will finish the season with 11 more points. 

• 13. Newcastle United
• Points: 35
• Predicted points: 46.3

The same points will earn Newcastle united. 

• 12. Everton
• Points: 37
• Predicted points: 48.4

Carlo Ancelotti's side will finish in the first 10 of the table.

• 11. Crystal Palace
• Points: 39
• Predicted points: 49.6

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, thought to finish above Everton. 

• 10. Burnley
• Points: 39
• Predicted points: 51.1

The top 10 of the Premier League table will open Burnley. 

• 9. Arsenal
• Points: 40
• Predicted points: 53

Arsenal are only expected to earn 13 more points.

• 8. Tottenham
• Points: 41
• Predicted points: 54.2

Jose Mourinho's Spurs will be out of the European football next season as they will finish eighth in the table. 

• 7. Sheffield United
• Points: 43
• Predicted points: 57.3

Sheffield United are tipped to finish seventh. 

• 6. Wolves
• Points: 43
• Predicted points: 57.4

Wolves have nine games to play and they are tipped to earn 14 points during those games. 

• 5. Manchester United
• Points: 45
• Predicted points: 60.4

Despite pundits believe, Manchester United will finish in the top four, the mathematical model put them in the fifth place. 

• 4. Chelsea
• Points: 48
• Predicted points: 62.9

Frank Lampard's side will keep their place in the top-four with 15 more points. 

• 3. Leicester City
• Points: 53
• Predicted points: 70.8

Brendan Rodger's Leicester City will keep their place in the third scale of the Premier League table. 

• 2. Manchester City
• Points: 57
• Predicted points: 77.8

 After two consecutive Premier League titles, Pep Guardiola's side will finish second this year. 

• 1. Liverpool
• Points: 82
• Predicted points: 105.9

Jurgen Klopp's side will finish the table at the top of the table.  “For a given match H-A, with H the home team and A the away team, let us model the number of points nH won by H as a function of the current points difference pH - pA. The larger the points difference (for instance, pH - pA = 82 - 25 = 57 for Liverpool - Aston Villa on match-day 33), the larger nH and the closer nH to 3; nH increases from 0 to 3," claims the report in The Times. “Similarly, the number of points nA earned by A is described as another function of pH - pA, which decreases from 3 to 0. I suggest using functions known as sigmoids or logistic functions. Each of these two functions depend on two parameters (elasticity and home advantage) which are calibrated to the 2019-2020 Premier League results.” Source: GMS 

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